Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Heat, fires, drought stress SoCal power grid

Pasadena Star News
By: Cynthia Kurtz
Posted: 9/03/2014 

Above average heat, wildfires, and no rain have put extreme pressure on the reliability of the California power grid that moves electricity around the state. That was the message from Dr. Robert Weisenmiller, Chair of the California State Energy Commission, when he addressed a room of San Gabriel Valley business and education leaders a few weeks ago.

The California Energy Commission was created in 1974 to oversee state energy policy and planning. Dr. Robert Weisenmiller was appointed in 2010. Four of the five-member Energy Commission appointees are required by law to have specific professional training and Dr. Weisenmeiller fills the Engineer & Scientist position.

His 30-years of energy experience in electricity, gas markets and California regulatory markets is well suited to the issues the Commission is addressing this year.

It has been a hot summer. Temperatures are higher - 5.7 degrees above average in Southern California. That means more air conditioning and electric power usage. Overall the state has sufficient electric power and a 20 percent reserve. However, power isn’t generated where the demand is located and moving it around isn’t as easy as you may think.

In a typical year California has around 3,150 wildfires. According to the California Office of Emergency Services, as of August the state had already experienced 4,132 wildfires burning over 80,000 acres. And “wildfire season” is just beginning. In the past California could expect to have a “big” fire once a decade. There have been eight in the last 4 1/2 years.

Wildfires have major impacts on the power grid. First, they effect the Commission’s decisions about siting power facilities. Avoiding all the potential wildfire areas isn’t possible with 37 million acres of California at risk and 17 million acres at high risk. Wildfires also effect the movement of power around the state. When a fire interrupts a portion of the transmission system, the Commission has to re-route power around the fire area. Building this type of redundancy into the system is difficult.

Less water means less hydropower. Natural gas and out-of-state hydropower power are making up the difference but at a higher cost. Businesses and residents can expect to see those increased costs materialize in higher electric bills next year.

Not all the challenges are from nature. Some are also man-made. The closure of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) reduced power generation by 2,100 megawatts (MW) - almost three times the output of a standard 750 MW fossil fuel fired facility. Equally important was the location of SONGS. The transmission system was built based on the assumption that an operating plant would be there. 

A three to four day heat wave, higher demand in the western U.S., an outage at a strategically located plant, or fire damaging the grid could result in unplanned outages before the end of the year. But the biggest threat is one more year of drought. Then, Dr. Weisenmiller says, “All bets are off.”

Businesses and residents alike need to plan accordingly. Conserve energy whenever possible and if the state calls for a flex alert - be ready to reduce power dramatically.

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