Immigration decline to affect boomers

Pasadena Star News

By: Cynthia Kurtz
Posted 5/07/2013
 

The “Baby Boomer” generation, of which I am a card carrying member, has been disrupting the world for 60 years. Between 1946 and 1964, the years generally defined as the Boomer generation, 75.8 million Americans were born.

The sheer size of the Boomer contingent meant that there weren’t enough schools, houses, roads or just about anything else. Because of the Boomers, education became a national priority, the suburbs were born, and houses were redesigned to add “family rooms”.

Boomers fought for civil rights, defined the “60s” and were generally responsible for the economic growth of the 1990’s using their disposable income for entertainment, electronics, luxury goods, and travel.

So it was no surprise when Dowell Myers, professor of policy, planning and demography at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy told the audience at the San Gabriel Valley Economic Partnership’s 2013 Forecast that we are about to experience a soaring senior ratio... after all a Boomer turns 50 every 7 seconds. However, it was the other news from Professor Myers that surprised the audience and made the Boomers in attendance a little nervous about how their “golden years” were going to work out.

For decades demographic projections have predicted continued population growth in the country and in California. We knew that families were getting smaller but we thought there were more families and it would work out. We believed our real ace in the hole was immigration. People were moving here from foreign lands and from other states. In fact, immigration was expected to accelerate.

The reality is much different. You may be thinking to yourself, well we just had a recession so of course we had a slowdown in immigration but that will change as the recession ends. That would be a good theory if the decline in immigration rates had begun when the recession began.  

Not so. Annual net immigration to Los Angeles County peaked in 1990, peaked in California a few years later and began to decline in the U.S. in the early 2000’s long before the recession started.

The magnitude of that change is startling. Just five years ago, in 2007, the California Department of Finance projected that Los Angeles County would reach 12 million people in 2030. In 2013, their new projection is that the 12 million population number will be reached at least 30 years later - sometime after 2060. 

Okay, maybe this is a good thing -- Less traffic, less development, easier to get into our favorite restaurant. But there is that point Professor Myers made about the soaring senior ratio.  

The percentage of residents age 65 to 74 is growing in almost every city in California including the San Gabriel Valley. We Boomers are expecting to sell our homes, collect our Medicare, and enjoy the good life. However, that requires a younger, more productive workforce that can buy our homes and pay for those services. With a declining native growth rate and reduced immigration that workforce isn’t being nurtured in the numbers California must have to maintain a vibrant economy.  

It is very clear what Boomers must do. We need to fix the immigration policy. We need to give foreign students who are educated at our great SGV schools the opportunity to build their businesses here. We need to invest in training our youth to enhance their skills and productivity. And we need to make it easier to operate businesses in this state so businesses can create jobs. Come on - we’re the Boomers - we can do this.